Human NCR3 gene variants rs2736191 and rs11575837 alter longitudinal risk for development of pediatric malaria episodes and severe malarial anemia.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality in holoendemic transmission areas. Severe malarial anemia [SMA, hemoglobin (Hb) < 5.0 g/dL in children] is the most common clinical manifestation of severe malaria in such regions. Although innate immune response genes are known to influence the development of SMA, the role of natural killer (NK) cells in malaria pathogenesis remains largely undefined. As such, we examined the impact of genetic variation in the gene encoding a primary NK cell receptor, natural cytotoxicity-triggering receptor 3 (NCR3), on the occurrence of malaria and SMA episodes over time. METHODS: Susceptibility to malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality was determined in carriers of NCR3 genetic variants (i.e., rs2736191:C > G and rs11575837:C > T) and their haplotypes. The prospective observational study was conducted over a 36 mos. follow-up period in a cohort of children (n = 1,515, aged 1.9-40 mos.) residing in a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission region, Siaya, Kenya. RESULTS: Poisson regression modeling, controlling for anemia-promoting covariates, revealed a significantly increased risk of malaria in carriers of the homozygous mutant allele genotype (TT) for rs11575837 after multiple test correction [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.540, 95% CI = 1.114-2.129, P = 0.009]. Increased risk of SMA was observed for rs2736191 in children who inherited the CG genotype (IRR = 1.269, 95% CI = 1.009-1.597, P = 0.041) and in the additive model (presence of 1 or 2 copies) (IRR = 1.198, 95% CI = 1.030-1.393, P = 0.019), but was not significant after multiple test correction. Modeling of the haplotypes revealed that the CC haplotype had a significant additive effect for protection against SMA (i.e., reduced risk for development of SMA) after multiple test correction (IRR = 0.823, 95% CI = 0.711-0.952, P = 0.009). Although increased susceptibility to SMA was present in carriers of the GC haplotype (IRR = 1.276, 95% CI = 1.030-1.581, P = 0.026) with an additive effect (IRR = 1.182, 95% CI = 1.018-1.372, P = 0.029), the results did not remain significant after multiple test correction. None of the NCR3 genotypes or haplotypes were associated with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in NCR3 alters susceptibility to malaria and SMA during the acquisition of naturally-acquired malarial immunity. These results highlight the importance of NK cells in the innate immune response to malaria.

Disproportionate impact of COVID-19 severity and mortality on hospitalized American Indian/Alaska Native patients.

Epidemiological data across the United States of America illustrate health disparities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality by race/ethnicity. However, limited information is available from prospective observational studies in hospitalized patients, particularly for American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Here, we present risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 and mortality in patients (4/2020-12/2021, n = 475) at the University of New Mexico Hospital. Data were collected on patient demographics, infection duration, laboratory measures, comorbidities, treatment(s), major clinical events, and in-hospital mortality. Severe disease was defined by COVID-related intensive care unit requirements and/or death. The cohort was stratified by self-reported race/ethnicity: AI/AN (30.7%), Hispanic (47.0%), non-Hispanic White (NHW, 18.5%), and Other (4.0%, not included in statistical comparisons). Despite similar timing of infection and comparable comorbidities, admission characteristics for AI/AN patients included younger age (P = 0.02), higher invasive mechanical ventilation requirements (P = 0.0001), and laboratory values indicative of more severe disease. Throughout hospitalization, the AI/AN group also experienced elevated invasive mechanical ventilation (P < 0.0001), shock (P = 0.01), encephalopathy (P = 0.02), and severe COVID-19 (P = 0.0002), consistent with longer hospitalization (P < 0.0001). Self-reported AI/AN race/ethnicity emerged as the highest risk factor for severe COVID-19 (OR = 3.19; 95% CI = 1.70-6.01; P = 0.0003) and was a predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR = 2.35; 95% CI = 1.12-4.92; P = 0.02). Results from this study highlight the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on hospitalized AI/AN patients, who experienced more severe illness and associated mortality, compared to Hispanic and NHW patients, even when accounting for symptom onset and comorbid conditions. These findings underscore the need for interventions and resources to address health disparities in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Toxicology knowledge graph for structural birth defects.

BACKGROUND: Birth defects are functional and structural abnormalities that impact about 1 in 33 births in the United States. They have been attributed to genetic and other factors such as drugs, cosmetics, food, and environmental pollutants during pregnancy, but for most birth defects there are no known causes. METHODS: To further characterize associations between small molecule compounds and their potential to induce specific birth abnormalities, we gathered knowledge from multiple sources to construct a reproductive toxicity Knowledge Graph (ReproTox-KG) with a focus on associations between birth defects, drugs, and genes. Specifically, we gathered data from drug/birth-defect associations from co-mentions in published abstracts, gene/birth-defect associations from genetic studies, drug- and preclinical-compound-induced gene expression changes in cell lines, known drug targets, genetic burden scores for human genes, and placental crossing scores for small molecules. RESULTS: Using ReproTox-KG and semi-supervised learning (SSL), we scored >30,000 preclinical small molecules for their potential to cross the placenta and induce birth defects, and identified >500 birth-defect/gene/drug cliques that can be used to explain molecular mechanisms for drug-induced birth defects. The ReproTox-KG can be accessed via a web-based user interface available at https://maayanlab.cloud/reprotox-kg . This site enables users to explore the associations between birth defects, approved and preclinical drugs, and all human genes. CONCLUSIONS: ReproTox-KG provides a resource for exploring knowledge about the molecular mechanisms of birth defects with the potential of predicting the likelihood of genes and preclinical small molecules to induce birth defects.

While birth defects are common, for most birth defects there are no known causes. During pregnancy, developing babies are exposed to drugs, cosmetics, food, and environmental pollutants that may cause birth defects. However, exactly how these environmental factors are involved in producing birth defects is difficult to discern. Also, birth defects can be a consequence of the genes inherited from the parents. We combined general data about human genes and drugs with specific data previously implicating genes and drugs in inducing birth defects to create a knowledge graph representation that connects genes, drugs, and birth defects. This knowledge graph can be used to explore new links that may explain why birth defects occur, particularly those that result from a combination of inherited and environmental influences.

Nonsynonymous amino acid changes in the α-chain of complement component 5 influence longitudinal susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum infections and severe malarial anemia in kenyan children.

Background: Severe malarial anemia (SMA; Hb < 5.0 g/dl) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions such as western Kenya. Methods: We investigated the relationship between two novel complement component 5 (C5) missense mutations [rs17216529:C>T, p(Val145Ile) and rs17610:C>T, p(Ser1310Asn)] and longitudinal outcomes of malaria in a cohort of Kenyan children (under 60 mos, n = 1,546). Molecular modeling was used to investigate the impact of the amino acid transitions on the C5 protein structure. Results: Prediction of the wild-type and mutant C5 protein structures did not reveal major changes to the overall structure. However, based on the position of the variants, subtle differences could impact on the stability of C5b. The influence of the C5 genotypes/haplotypes on the number of malaria and SMA episodes over 36 months was determined by Poisson regression modeling. Genotypic analyses revealed that inheritance of the homozygous mutant (TT) for rs17216529:C>T enhanced the risk for both malaria (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 1.144, 95%CI: 1.059-1.236, p = 0.001) and SMA (IRR = 1.627, 95%CI: 1.201-2.204, p = 0.002). In the haplotypic model, carriers of TC had increased risk of malaria (IRR = 1.068, 95%CI: 1.017-1.122, p = 0.009), while carriers of both wild-type alleles (CC) were protected against SMA (IRR = 0.679, 95%CI: 0.542-0.850, p = 0.001). Conclusion: Collectively, these findings show that the selected C5 missense mutations influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and SMA in immune-naïve children exposed to holoendemic P. falciparum transmission through a mechanism that remains to be defined.

Genetic variation in CSF2 (5q31.1) is associated with longitudinal susceptibility to pediatric malaria, severe malarial anemia, and all-cause mortality in a high-burden malaria and HIV region of Kenya.

Plasmodium falciparum infections remain among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in holoendemic transmission areas. Located within region 5q31.1, the colony-stimulating factor 2 gene (CSF2) encodes granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), a hematopoietic growth factor that mediates host immune responses. Since the effect of CSF2 variation on malaria pathogenesis remains unreported, we investigated the impact of two genetic variants in the 5q31.1 gene region flanking CSF2:g-7032 G > A (rs168681:G > A) and CSF2:g.64544T > C (rs246835:T > C) on the rate and timing of malaria and severe malarial anemia (SMA, Hb < 5.0 g/dL) episodes over 36 months of follow-up. Children (n = 1654, aged 2-70 months) were recruited from a holoendemic P. falciparum transmission area of western Kenya. Decreased incidence rate ratio (IRR) for malaria was conferred by inheritance of the CSF2:g.64544 TC genotype (P = 0.0277) and CSF2 AC/GC diplotype (P = 0.0015). Increased IRR for malaria was observed in carriers of the CSF2 AT/GC diplotype (P = 0.0237), while the inheritance of the CSF2 AT haplotype increased the IRR for SMA (P = 0.0166). A model estimating the longitudinal risk of malaria showed decreased hazard rates among CSF2 AC haplotype carriers (P = 0.0045). Investigation of all-cause mortality revealed that inheritance of the GA genotype at CSF2:g-7032 increased the risk of mortality (P = 0.0315). Higher risk of SMA and all-cause mortality were observed in younger children (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0015), HIV-1(+) individuals (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001), and carriers of HbSS (P = 0.0342 and P = 0.0019). Results from this holoendemic P. falciparum area show that variation in gene region 5q31.1 influences susceptibility to malaria, SMA, and mortality, as does age, HIV-1 status, and inheritance of HbSS.

Elevated SARS-CoV-2 in peripheral blood and increased COVID-19 severity in American Indians/Alaska Natives.

Epidemiological data across the United States show health disparities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality by race/ethnicity. While the association between elevated SARS-CoV-2 viral loads (VLs) (i.e. upper respiratory tract (URT) and peripheral blood (PB)) and increased COVID-19 severity has been reported, data remain largely unavailable for some disproportionately impacted racial/ethnic groups, particularly for American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. As such, we determined the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 VL dynamics and disease severity in a diverse cohort of hospitalized patients. Results presented here are for study participants (n = 94, ages 21-88 years) enrolled in a prospective observational study between May and October 2020 who had SARS-CoV-2 viral clades 20A, C, and G. Based on self-reported race/ethnicity and sample size distribution, the cohort was stratified into two groups: (AI/AN, n = 43) and all other races/ethnicities combined (non-AI/AN, n = 51). SARS-CoV-2 VLs were quantified in the URT and PB on days 0-3, 6, 9, and 14. The strongest predictor of severe COVID-19 in the study population was the mean VL in PB (OR = 3.34; P = 2.00 × 10-4). The AI/AN group had the following: (1) comparable co-morbidities and admission laboratory values, yet more severe COVID-19 (OR = 4.81; P = 0.014); (2) a 2.1 longer duration of hospital stay (P = 0.023); and (3) higher initial and cumulative PB VLs during severe disease (P = 0.025). Moreover, self-reported race/ethnicity as AI/AN was the strongest predictor of elevated PB VLs (ß = 1.08; P = 6.00 × 10-4) and detection of SARS-CoV-2 in PB (hazard ratio = 3.58; P = 0.004). The findings presented here suggest a strong relationship between PB VL (magnitude and frequency) and severe COVID-19, particularly for the AI/AN group.

Ingestion of hemozoin by peripheral blood mononuclear cells alters temporal gene expression of ubiquitination processes.

Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria is among the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. During a natural infection, ingestion of the malarial parasite product, hemozoin (PfHz), by circulating phagocytic cells induces dysregulation in innate immunity and enhances malaria pathogenesis. Treatment of cultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from healthy, malaria-naïve donors with physiological concentrations of PfHz can serve as an in vitro model to investigate cellular processes. Although disruptions in host ubiquitination processes are central to the pathogenesis of many diseases, this system remains unexplored in malaria. As such, we investigated the impact of PfHz on the temporal expression patterns of 84 genes involved in ubiquitination processes. Donor PBMCs were cultured in the absence or presence of PfHz for 3-, 9-, and 24 h. Stimulation with PfHz for 3 h did not significantly alter gene expression. Incubation for 9 h, however, elicited significant changes for 6 genes: 4 were down-regulated (FBXO4, NEDD8, UBE2E3, and UBE2W) and 2 were up-regulated (HERC5 and UBE2J1). PfHz treatment for 24 h significantly altered expression for 14 genes: 12 were down-regulated (ANAPC11, BRCC3, CUL4B, FBXO4, MIB1, SKP2, TP53, UBA2, UBA3, UBE2G1, UBE2G2, and WWP1), while 2 were up-regulated (UBE2J1 and UBE2Z). Collectively, these results demonstrate that phagocytosis of PfHz by PBMCs elicits temporal changes in the transcriptional profiles of genes central to host ubiquitination processes. Results presented here suggest that disruptions in ubiquitination may be a previously undiscovered feature of malaria pathogenesis.

Complement component 3 mutations alter the longitudinal risk of pediatric malaria and severe malarial anemia.

Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions. To gain enhanced understanding of predisposing factors for SMA, we explored the relationship between complement component 3 (C3) missense mutations [rs2230199 (2307C>G, Arg>Gly102) and rs11569534 (34420G>A, Gly>Asp1224)], malaria, and SMA in a cohort of children (n = 1617 children) over 36 months of follow-up. Variants were selected based on their ability to impart amino acid substitutions that can alter the structure and function of C3. The 2307C>G mutation results in a basic to a polar residue change (Arg to Gly) at position 102 (ß-chain) in the macroglobulin-1 (MG1) domain, while 34420G>A elicits a polar to acidic residue change (Gly to Asp) at position 1224 (α-chain) in the thioester-containing domain. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, longitudinal analyses revealed that inheritance of the homozygous mutant (GG) at 2307 enhanced the risk of SMA (RR = 2.142, 95%CI: 1.229-3.735, P = 0.007). The haplotype containing both wild-type alleles (CG) decreased the incident risk ratio of both malaria (RR = 0.897, 95%CI: 0.828-0.972, P = 0.008) and SMA (RR = 0.617, 95%CI: 0.448-0.848, P = 0.003). Malaria incident risk ratio was also reduced in carriers of the GG (Gly102Gly1224) haplotype (RR = 0.941, 95%CI: 0.888-0.997, P = 0.040). Collectively, inheritance of the missense mutations in MG1 and thioester-containing domain influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and SMA in children exposed to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission.

Predictors of diagnostic transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder: a retrospective observational network study.

Many patients with bipolar disorder (BD) are initially misdiagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) and are treated with antidepressants, whose potential iatrogenic effects are widely discussed. It is unknown whether MDD is a comorbidity of BD or its earlier stage, and no consensus exists on individual conversion predictors, delaying BD's timely recognition and treatment. We aimed to build a predictive model of MDD to BD conversion and to validate it across a multi-national network of patient databases using the standardization afforded by the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) common data model. Five "training" US databases were retrospectively analyzed: IBM MarketScan CCAE, MDCR, MDCD, Optum EHR, and Optum Claims. Cyclops regularized logistic regression models were developed on one-year MDD-BD conversion with all standard covariates from the HADES PatientLevelPrediction package. Time-to-conversion Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed up to a decade after MDD, stratified by model-estimated risk. External validation of the final prediction model was performed across 9 patient record databases within the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network internationally. The model's area under the curve (AUC) varied 0.633-0.745 (µ = 0.689) across the five US training databases. Nine variables predicted one-year MDD-BD transition. Factors that increased risk were: younger age, severe depression, psychosis, anxiety, substance misuse, self-harm thoughts/actions, and prior mental disorder. AUCs of the validation datasets ranged 0.570-0.785 (µ = 0.664). An assessment algorithm was built for MDD to BD conversion that allows distinguishing as much as 100-fold risk differences among patients and validates well across multiple international data sources.

Differential Gene Expression in Host Ubiquitination Processes in Childhood Malarial Anemia.

Background: Malaria remains one of the leading global causes of childhood morbidity and mortality. In holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission regions, such as western Kenya, severe malarial anemia [SMA, hemoglobin (Hb) < 6.0 g/dl] is the primary form of severe disease. Ubiquitination is essential for regulating intracellular processes involved in innate and adaptive immunity. Although dysregulation in ubiquitin molecular processes is central to the pathogenesis of multiple human diseases, the expression patterns of ubiquitination genes in SMA remain unexplored. Methods: To examine the role of the ubiquitination processes in pathogenesis of SMA, differential gene expression profiles were determined in Kenyan children (n = 44, aged <48 mos) with either mild malarial anemia (MlMA; Hb ≥9.0 g/dl; n = 23) or SMA (Hb <6.0 g/dl; n = 21) using the Qiagen Human Ubiquitination Pathway RT2 Profiler PCR Array containing a set of 84 human ubiquitination genes. Results: In children with SMA, 10 genes were down-regulated (BRCC3, FBXO3, MARCH5, RFWD2, SMURF2, UBA6, UBE2A, UBE2D1, UBE2L3, UBR1), and five genes were up-regulated (MDM2, PARK2, STUB1, UBE2E3, UBE2M). Enrichment analyses revealed Ubiquitin-Proteasomal Proteolysis as the top disrupted process, along with altered sub-networks involved in proteasomal, protein, and ubiquitin-dependent catabolic processes. Conclusion: Collectively, these novel results show that protein coding genes of the ubiquitination processes are involved in the pathogenesis of SMA.

TIGA: target illumination GWAS analytics.

MOTIVATION: Genome-wide association studies can reveal important genotype-phenotype associations; however, data quality and interpretability issues must be addressed. For drug discovery scientists seeking to prioritize targets based on the available evidence, these issues go beyond the single study. RESULTS: Here, we describe rational ranking, filtering and interpretation of inferred gene-trait associations and data aggregation across studies by leveraging existing curation and harmonization efforts. Each gene-trait association is evaluated for confidence, with scores derived solely from aggregated statistics, linking a protein-coding gene and phenotype. We propose a method for assessing confidence in gene-trait associations from evidence aggregated across studies, including a bibliometric assessment of scientific consensus based on the iCite relative citation ratio, and meanRank scores, to aggregate multivariate evidence.This method, intended for drug target hypothesis generation, scoring and ranking, has been implemented as an analytical pipeline, available as open source, with public datasets of results, and a web application designed for usability by drug discovery scientists. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Web application, datasets and source code via https://unmtid-shinyapps.net/tiga/. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Renin-angiotensin system blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19: an international, open science, cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) have been postulated to affect susceptibility to COVID-19. Observational studies so far have lacked rigorous ascertainment adjustment and international generalisability. We aimed to determine whether use of ACEIs or ARBs is associated with an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 in patients with hypertension. METHODS: In this international, open science, cohort analysis, we used electronic health records from Spain (Information Systems for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP]) and the USA (Columbia University Irving Medical Center data warehouse [CUIMC] and Department of Veterans Affairs Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership [VA-OMOP]) to identify patients aged 18 years or older with at least one prescription for ACEIs and ARBs (target cohort) or calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics (THZs; comparator cohort) between Nov 1, 2019, and Jan 31, 2020. Users were defined separately as receiving either monotherapy with these four drug classes, or monotherapy or combination therapy (combination use) with other antihypertensive medications. We assessed four outcomes: COVID-19 diagnosis; hospital admission with COVID-19; hospital admission with pneumonia; and hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis. We built large-scale propensity score methods derived through a data-driven approach and negative control experiments across ten pairwise comparisons, with results meta-analysed to generate 1280 study effects. For each study effect, we did negative control outcome experiments using a possible 123 controls identified through a data-rich algorithm. This process used a set of predefined baseline patient characteristics to provide the most accurate prediction of treatment and balance among patient cohorts across characteristics. The study is registered with the EU Post-Authorisation Studies register, EUPAS35296. FINDINGS: Among 1 355 349 antihypertensive users (363 785 ACEI or ARB monotherapy users, 248 915 CCB or THZ monotherapy users, 711 799 ACEI or ARB combination users, and 473 076 CCB or THZ combination users) included in analyses, no association was observed between COVID-19 diagnosis and exposure to ACEI or ARB monotherapy versus CCB or THZ monotherapy (calibrated hazard ratio [HR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·84-1·14) or combination use exposure (1·01, 0·90-1·15). ACEIs alone similarly showed no relative risk difference when compared with CCB or THZ monotherapy (HR 0·91, 95% CI 0·68-1·21; with heterogeneity of >40%) or combination use (0·95, 0·83-1·07). Directly comparing ACEIs with ARBs demonstrated a moderately lower risk with ACEIs, which was significant with combination use (HR 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99) and non-significant for monotherapy (0·85, 0·69-1·05). We observed no significant difference between drug classes for risk of hospital admission with COVID-19, hospital admission with pneumonia, or hospital admission with pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injury, or sepsis across all comparisons. INTERPRETATION: No clinically significant increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or hospital admission-related outcomes associated with ACEI or ARB use was observed, suggesting users should not discontinue or change their treatment to decrease their risk of COVID-19. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research & Development, IQVIA, South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and European Health Data and Evidence Network.

Risk of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational, retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I 2 value was less than 0·4. FINDINGS: The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12-2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22-3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05-1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02-1·45]). INTERPRETATION: Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit-risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research and Development, IQVIA, Korea Health Industry Development Institute through the Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic of Korea, Versus Arthritis, UK Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership, Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, Innovation Fund Denmark, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council Open Fund Large Collaborative Grant, VINCI, Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

Comparative safety and effectiveness of alendronate versus raloxifene in women with osteoporosis.

Alendronate and raloxifene are among the most popular anti-osteoporosis medications. However, there is a lack of head-to-head comparative effectiveness studies comparing the two treatments. We conducted a retrospective large-scale multicenter study encompassing over 300 million patients across nine databases encoded in the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM). The primary outcome was the incidence of osteoporotic hip fracture, while secondary outcomes were vertebral fracture, atypical femoral fracture (AFF), osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ), and esophageal cancer. We used propensity score trimming and stratification based on an expansive propensity score model with all pre-treatment patient characteritistcs. We accounted for unmeasured confounding using negative control outcomes to estimate and adjust for residual systematic bias in each data source. We identified 283,586 alendronate patients and 40,463 raloxifene patients. There were 7.48 hip fracture, 8.18 vertebral fracture, 1.14 AFF, 0.21 esophageal cancer and 0.09 ONJ events per 1,000 person-years in the alendronate cohort and 6.62, 7.36, 0.69, 0.22 and 0.06 events per 1,000 person-years, respectively, in the raloxifene cohort. Alendronate and raloxifene have a similar hip fracture risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-1.13), but alendronate users are more likely to have vertebral fractures (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01-1.14). Alendronate has higher risk for AFF (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.23-1.84) but similar risk for esophageal cancer (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.53-1.70), and ONJ (HR 1.62, 95% CI 0.78-3.34). We demonstrated substantial control of measured confounding by propensity score adjustment, and minimal residual systematic bias through negative control experiments, lending credibility to our effect estimates. Raloxifene is as effective as alendronate and may remain an option in the prevention of osteoporotic fracture.

Renin-angiotensin system blockers and susceptibility to COVID-19: a multinational open science cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) could influence infection risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Observational studies to date lack pre-specification, transparency, rigorous ascertainment adjustment and international generalizability, with contradictory results. METHODS: Using electronic health records from Spain (SIDIAP) and the United States (Columbia University Irving Medical Center and Department of Veterans Affairs), we conducted a systematic cohort study with prevalent ACE, ARB, calcium channel blocker (CCB) and thiazide diuretic (THZ) use to determine relative risk of COVID-19 diagnosis and related hospitalization outcomes. The study addressed confounding through large-scale propensity score adjustment and negative control experiments. RESULTS: Following over 1.1 million antihypertensive users identified between November 2019 and January 2020, we observed no significant difference in relative COVID-19 diagnosis risk comparing ACE/ARB vs CCB/THZ monotherapy (hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI 0.84 - 1.14), nor any difference for mono/combination use (1.01; 0.90 - 1.15). ACE alone and ARB alone similarly showed no relative risk difference when compared to CCB/THZ monotherapy or mono/combination use. Directly comparing ACE vs. ARB demonstrated a moderately lower risk with ACE, non-significant for monotherapy (0.85; 0.69 - 1.05) and marginally significant for mono/combination users (0.88; 0.79 - 0.99). We observed, however, no significant difference between drug- classes for COVID-19 hospitalization or pneumonia risk across all comparisons. CONCLUSION: There is no clinically significant increased risk of COVID-19 diagnosis or hospitalization with ACE or ARB use. Users should not discontinue or change their treatment to avoid COVID-19.

LocalControl: An R Package for Comparative Safety and Effectiveness Research.

The LocalControl R package implements novel approaches to address biases and confounding when comparing treatments or exposures in observational studies of outcomes. While designed and appropriate for use in comparative safety and effectiveness research involving medicine and the life sciences, the package can be used in other situations involving outcomes with multiple confounders. LocalControl is an open-source tool for researchers whose aim is to generate high quality evidence using observational data. The package implements a family of methods for non-parametric bias correction when comparing treatments in observational studies, including survival analysis settings, where competing risks and/or censoring may be present. The approach extends to bias-corrected personalized predictions of treatment outcome differences, and analysis of heterogeneity of treatment effect-sizes across patient subgroups.

Cyclooxygenase-2 haplotypes influence the longitudinal risk of malaria and severe malarial anemia in Kenyan children from a holoendemic transmission region.

Cyclooxygenase-2 [(COX-2) or prostaglandin endoperoxide H2 synthase-2 (PTGS-2)] induces the production of prostaglandins as part of the host-immune response to infections. Although a number of studies have demonstrated the effects of COX-2 promoter variants on autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, their role in malaria remains undefined. As such, we investigated the relationship between four COX-2 promoter variants (COX-2 -512 C > T, -608 T > C, -765 G > C, and -1195 A > G) and susceptibility to malaria and severe malarial anemia (SMA) upon enrollment and longitudinally over a 36-month follow-up period. All-cause mortality was also explored. The investigation was carried out in children (n = 1081, age; 2-70 months) residing in a holoendemic Plasmodium falciparum transmission region of western Kenya. At enrollment, genotypes/haplotypes (controlling for anemia-promoting covariates) did not reveal any strong effects on susceptibility to either malaria or SMA. Longitudinal analyses showed decreased malaria episodes in children who inherited the -608 CC mutant allele (RR = 0.746, P = 1.811 × 10-4) and -512C/-608T/-765G/-1195G (CTGG) haplotype (RR = 0.856, P = 0.011), and increased risk in TTCA haplotype carriers (RR = 1.115, P = 0.026). Over the follow-up period, inheritance of the rare TTCG haplotype was associated with enhanced susceptibility to both malaria (RR = 1.608, P = 0.016) and SMA (RR = 5.714, P = 0.004), while carriage of the rare TTGG haplotype increased the risk of malaria (RR = 1.755, P = 0.007), SMA (RR = 8.706, P = 3.97 × 10-4), and all-cause mortality (HR = 110.000, P = 0.001). Collectively, these results show that SNP variations in the COX-2 promoter, and their inherited combinations, are associated with the longitudinal risk of malaria, SMA, and all-cause mortality among children living in a high transmission area for P. falciparum.

Imputation and characterization of uncoded self-harm in major mental illness using machine learning.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to impute uncoded self-harm in administrative claims data of individuals with major mental illness (MMI), characterize self-harm incidence, and identify factors associated with coding bias. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The IBM MarketScan database (2003-2016) was used to analyze visit-level self-harm in 10 120 030 patients with ≥2 MMI codes. Five machine learning (ML) classifiers were tested on a balanced data subset, with XGBoost selected for the full dataset. Classification performance was validated via random data mislabeling and comparison with a clinician-derived "gold standard." The incidence of coded and imputed self-harm was characterized by year, patient age, sex, U.S. state, and MMI diagnosis. RESULTS: Imputation identified 1 592 703 self-harm events vs 83 113 coded events, with areas under the curve >0.99 for the balanced and full datasets, and 83.5% agreement with the gold standard. The overall coded and imputed self-harm incidence were 0.28% and 5.34%, respectively, varied considerably by age and sex, and was highest in individuals with multiple MMI diagnoses. Self-harm undercoding was higher in male than in female individuals and increased with age. Substance abuse, injuries, poisoning, asphyxiation, brain disorders, harmful thoughts, and psychotherapy were the main features used by ML to classify visits. DISCUSSION: Only 1 of 19 self-harm events was coded for individuals with MMI. ML demonstrated excellent performance in recovering self-harm visits. Male individuals and seniors with MMI are particularly vulnerable to self-harm undercoding and may be at risk of not getting appropriate psychiatric care. CONCLUSIONS: ML can effectively recover unrecorded self-harm in claims data and inform psychiatric epidemiological and observational studies.

Diabetes mellitus risk for 102 drugs and drug combinations used in patients with bipolar disorder.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the largest set of bipolar disorder pharmacotherapies to date (102 drugs and drug combinations) for risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). METHODS: The IBM MarketScan® database was used to retrospectively analyze data on 565,253 adults with bipolar disorder without prior glucose metabolism-related diagnoses. The pharmacotherapies compared were lithium, mood-stabilizing anticonvulsants, antipsychotics, and antidepressants (monotherapy and multi-class polypharmacy). Cox regression modeling included fixed pre-treatment covariates and time-varying drug exposure covariates to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of each treatment versus "No drug". RESULTS: The annual incidence of new-onset diabetes during the exposure period was 3.09 % (22,951 patients). The HR of drug-dependent DM ranged from 0.79 to 2.37. One-third of the studied pharmacotherapies, including most of the antipsychotic-containing regimens, had a significantly higher risk of DM compared to "No drug". A significantly lower DM risk was associated with lithium, lamotrigine, oxcarbazepine and bupropion monotherapies, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) mono-class therapy and several drug combinations containing bupropion and an SSRI. As additional drugs were combined in more complex polypharmacy, higher HRs were consistently observed. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increased risk of diabetes mellitus associated with antipsychotic and psychotropic polypharmacy use in bipolar disorder. The evidence of a lower-than-baseline risk of DM with lamotrigine, oxcarbazepine, lithium, and bupropion monotherapy should be further investigated.

Genetic variation in interleukin-7 is associated with a reduced erythropoietic response in Kenyan children infected with Plasmodium falciparum.

BACKGROUND: Severe malarial anemia (SMA) is a leading cause of malaria-related morbidity and mortality in children. The genetic factors that influence development of SMA and inefficient erythropoiesis, a central pathogenic feature of SMA, are only partially understood. METHODS: We performed a pilot Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS) on children with Plasmodium falciparum. The GWAS was performed using the Illumina® Infinium® HD Super Assay in conjunction with Illumina's® Human Omni2.5-8v1 BeadChip (with > 2.45 M markers). Data were analyzed using single SNP logistic regression analysis with an additive model of inheritance controlling for covariates. Results from our pilot global genomics study identified that variation in interleukin (IL)-7 was associated with enhanced risk of SMA. To validate this finding, we investigated the relationship between genotypes and/or haplotypes of two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL7 [72194 T/C and - 2440 A/G] and susceptibility to both SMA and inefficient erythropoiesis [i.e., reticulocyte production index (RPI) < 2.0 in anemic children (Hb < 11.0 g/dL). Children presenting with P. falciparum malaria (< 3 years, n = 883) were stratified into two groups: Uncomplicated malaria (UM, n = 718) and SMA (n = 165). RESULTS: Regression modeling, controlling for anemia-related confounders, revealed that carriage of the TC genotype at position 72194 T/C was associated with enhanced susceptibility to inefficient erythropoiesis (OR = 1.90; 95% CI 1.09-3.30; P = 0.02) as was homozygous CC (OR 5.14; 95% CI = 1.20-21.99; P = 0.03). Consistent with this finding, individuals with the CA (72194C/-2440A) haplotype had an increased risk of inefficient erythropoiesis (OR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.10-3.30; P = 0.02), whereas TA haplotype carriers had marginal protection against inefficient erythropoiesis (OR = 0.24; 95% CI = 0.06-1.21; P = 0.05). These observations were supported by Cochran-Armitage trend test for inefficient erythropoiesis (CA > TA > CG; P < 0.01). Although none of the genotype and/or haplotypic variants were significantly associated with SMA, the direction of the risk profiles were consistent with the erythropoiesis results. CONCLUSION: Taken together, variation in IL7 is associated with erythropoietic responses in children with falciparum malaria, a central physiological feature contributing to development of SMA.